Recently, information about natural gas price increases has flooded the circle of friends of building ceramics people again and again. Whether it is the professional media in the industry or the mass media outside the industry, they have expressed their opinions on Enping Natural Gas Five Many price increases have been reported. Recalling yesterday, last year's crazy price increase has just come to an end; today, natural gas prices have risen for the fifth consecutive time and are making waves again.
Manufacturers raise prices, dealers follow suit
At the beginning of the new year, Enping sent a "new year gift package". In less than 10 days, the price of natural gas shot up from less than 5 yuan/m² to more than 7 yuan/m².
And Enping is not the only one raising natural gas prices this time. A relevant person in charge of a gas company said that parks such as Qingyuan, Heyun, and Zhaoqing Guangning, which are centrally supplied by LNG, The prices have increased almost simultaneously, and have exceeded the 5 yuan mark. According to the "Ceramic Information" report, the main reason for the sharp increase in natural gas prices is that the inventory before the year has been exhausted. Due to the international energy situation, domestic imported gas sources have decreased, and it coincides with the substantial increase in demand for concentrated construction after the new year. Natural gas is in short supply. The superposition of multiple factors led to the "Enping's fifth consecutive rise" incident.
After Enping’s five consecutive price increases, whether it is a ceramics or sanitary ware company, or other home building materials companies, such as coatings, customized home furnishings, furniture and other brands, Price increases have been announced.
On February 16, Faensa Sanitary Ware issued a notice of price adjustment for 2022 products. The new prices will be implemented from March 1, 2022.
On February 20, Nippon Decoration Materials (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. issued a product price adjustment letter stating that starting from March 1, 2022, for interior walls/exterior walls/woodenware Prices of products such as / base materials / auxiliary materials will be increased by 3%-10%.
February 21, Keshun Civil Building Materials Co., Ltd.An official letter was sent to announce the price increase, with emulsions going up by about 50%, cement going up by about 30%, and other materials going up by about 10%-40%.
Compared with sanitary ware, paint and other home building materials categories, building ceramics companies are "slightly inferior" in product price increases. At present, some relatively "flat" manufacturers choose to suspend production lines and delay the ignition and opening of kilns; while other proactive manufacturers follow the trend and increase product prices, up to 3 yuan per piece.
Affected by manufacturers, dealers have also begun to increase prices. For example, a sanitary ware brand store in Foshan China Ceramics City even though the store has a promotion advertisement of "all samples are as low as 20% off" However, at the beginning of the new year, the prices of products in the store have been raised, with the price increase ranging from 10% to 20%. Similarly, some ceramic tile brand stores in the China Ceramic City have also made plans to increase product prices, which will be implemented in the near future.
Test price increase, price black box
Although the wave of price increases is in full swing, it actually has little impact on the market. In other words, the current wave of price increases is more superficial and has not yet been implemented. Specifically, it takes time for the price increase to pass from the upstream to the terminal. That is, it is easy for manufacturers to increase prices when selling to dealers, and distribution It is difficult for merchants to raise prices when selling to customers.
So for dealers, where is the pressure to increase prices?
Dealers are actually not lacking in psychological preparation for price increases by manufacturers in an environment where production costs such as raw materials, fuel, labor, etc. are rising - manufacturers' production costs are rising, and product ex-factory prices Naturally, a rising tide lifts all boats. However, the serious overcapacity in the building ceramics industry has a long history and has been a long-standing problem. The price of ceramic tiles in the terminal market can be said to be "there is no lowest, only lower." No matter which dealer wants to increase the price, he must consider the competition.What will happen to the hands.
The reason why manufacturers raise prices in a big way is to convey a sense of crisis to dealers. If they don’t purchase goods, prices may continue to rise, or manufacturers may temporarily suffer from tight natural gas supply. The inability to produce results in product out-of-stock, so hopefully they can stock up in sufficient quantities in a timely manner. After all, around the National Day holiday last year, the building ceramics industry had just experienced several rounds of price increases. At that time, major production areas such as Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shandong, Guangxi, Hubei, and Fujian ushered in the third or even fourth wave after the National Day. Price increases, Dongpeng Holdings, Oceano, Mona Lisa, New Pearl, Champion, Shenghua Ceramics, Nengqiang, Xiangda, Hongrun, Zhongsheng and other ceramic companies announced to increase the price of ceramic tiles, the entire ceramic industry rose The price range is generally between 5% and 10%. Less than half a year has passed, and ceramic companies must consider the feelings of dealers even if they want to increase prices.
So so far, the price increase storm in the construction and ceramics industry is still loud but not rainy. At present, only ceramic companies in Jiangxi have officially issued a document to raise prices, with an increase of 0.6 yuan per piece. Most of the other price increase information has not been named, which is inevitably suspected of being based on hearsay. Of course, in this period when everything is skyrocketing, it is inevitable for ceramic companies to raise prices again, but the time should be in the future rather than now.
In addition, even if ceramic companies raise prices, the impact on the end market will not be as big as imagined.
Due to the opacity of product prices in the building ceramics industry, it is impossible to achieve unified national pricing, which makes the same type of products of different ceramic tile brands have different prices, and the prices of different products of the same brand are also different, and different distributors have different prices. The prices that merchants purchase goods from manufacturers are even different, and the prices that different dealers sell goods are also different. This is equivalent to that for consumers, the dealer's cost price is a "black box". Consumers can only judge whether the dealer has increased the price by comparing the same product from different merchants. However, it is impossible for different merchants of different brands to have two identical products.
Furthermore, even if dealers raise prices, it will not have a huge impact on sales: high-end users care more about service quality rather than product price; and for mid-level users, as long as The price increase is not outrageous, and they will not care too much about the price of ceramic tiles; only low-end users are the most sensitive to the price of ceramic tiles. However, even for low-end users, dealers still have special price bricks and warehouse goods to sell.
So to a certain extent, what dealers are most worried about is not that manufacturers will raise prices, but that manufacturers will easily raise prices based on the voice of public opinion!
"Prisoner's Dilemma", survival of the fittest
Enping's "Five Consecutive Price Increases" incident caused a stir, and a wave of price increases was created, but this put dealers in a "prisoner's dilemma."
What is the "Prisoner's Dilemma"? To put it simply, two people who conspired to commit a crime are imprisoned and cannot communicate with each other. If neither person exposes the other, each person will go to jail for one year because the evidence is uncertain; if one person exposes the other and the other remains silent, the one who exposes will be released immediately for meritorious service, and the one who remains silent will go to jail for ten years for not cooperating; If they expose each other, both will be sentenced to eight years in prison because the evidence is conclusive. Since prisoners cannot trust each other, they tend to expose each other rather than remain silent together.
This phenomenon is well reflected in dealers. When manufacturers increase prices, dealers can transfer the pressure to consumers as long as the group follows the increase, and the group can benefit from this, achieving a win-win situation for the group; but as long as one dealer "betrays" the group, the dealer can gain The individual income is much higher than the average income obtained when the group wins together, and other dealers will suffer as a result. This mutual distrust puts the dealer group into a "prisoner's dilemma".
After all, dealers are in a competitive relationship, and there is also pressure from manufacturers to purchase goods. There is no trust between collective members. Distributors that are difficult to unite cannot jointly shoulder the price increase pressure of manufacturers, and cannot jointly control the terminal market. Dispersed dealers will have to face the continuous tide of price increases alone - the price increase tide will become a comb. , constantly eliminating the weak who cannot adapt to the environment, leaving the market to the strong who are capable of surviving. So what kind of dealer can be the last survivor? One is inseparable from service, the other isApart from the cost-effectiveness of the product, the third factor is inseparable from financial strength, and under the current circumstances financial strength is the most important factor.
Of course, as the real estate market atmosphere and credit environment pick up, good news about the property market in many places is spreading frequently. On February 21, an intermediary in Guangzhou revealed that the four major banks had simultaneously lowered mortgage interest rates in Guangzhou. Among them, the interest rate for the first home was reduced to 5.4% from the previous 5.6%, and the interest rate for the second home was reduced from 5.8% to 5.6%. The property market is good, and coupled with the "March 15" big promotion in the near future, dealers must also have a "good start."
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Today, natural gas prices have been adjusted five times in a row. Although the momentum is huge, the pressure currently caused is mainly concentrated on manufacturers, and it will take time to be transmitted to dealers. Compared with worries about the future, the upcoming "3·15" promotion is what dealers need to pay attention to now. In fact, for experienced dealers who have a fixed basic market and have been deeply involved in the market for many years, the continuous wave of price increases may not be a good thing.
